The ship that carries a Chinese car abroad costs $80,000 a day

Calculation 1 / VolumeNine months did more than last year’s full year

Let’s lay out the volume first. Per CAAM’s monthly release on 12 October: China’s auto exports reached 8.205 million units in the first three quarters, up 65.8% year-on-year; September alone hit 1.053 million units, up 61.4% year-on-year. Since June, monthly exports have exceeded 1 million units for four straight months.

The baseline for comparison: last year’s full-year exports were 7.098 million units. In other words, this year needed only nine months to leave last year’s total behind. CAAM Deputy Secretary-General Chen Shihua left room for the fourth quarter at the briefing, but the conclusion is clear—full-year exports are expected to surpass 10 million units. Back in 2019, that figure was under 600,000.

Seen from the sea, here is where that volume sits: according to Clarksons data cited by Industrial Securities, China’s share of global seaborne auto trade rose from 4.8% in 2020 to 24.3% in 2025.

The other side of volume is “cold at home, hot abroad.” In September, domestic auto production and sales fell 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, while exports rose about 60%. For shipbuilders and shipping lines, this means one certainty: all these cars must be loaded onto ships.

Calculation 2 / PriceThe ship’s price tag is already posted

Per Clarksons: the one-year charter rate for a 6,500-CEU car carrier was $10,000/day in August 2020, spiked to $115,000 in October 2023, then fell back to around $42,500 at end-2025—this July it returned to $80,000.

Shipbrokers are more granular: the average one-year time-charter in June was about $70,000, up 65% from end-2025; on the spot market, quality vessels changed hands at $80,000–90,000.

Calculation 2 / SupplyIt’s not that there are too few ships—they age too fast

Here is a counter-intuitive fact: the car-carrier fleet has actually expanded about 40% in recent years, yet it is still not enough—the answer is in the vessel age.

Per Clarksons, as of this July, vessels 15+ years old made up 57% of the global fleet and 20+ years old made up 26%; the orderbook was only 20.63% of the existing fleet.

Why scramble for this specialist vessel—containers can’t fully replace a ro-ro: per Industrial Securities, over 80% of the world’s finished-vehicle seaborne trade still moves on car carriers—cars drive on and off, thousands loaded in hours, with low damage. Containers absorb only the overflow.

Routes are also lengthening. Per industry analysis, the Cape of Good Hope diversion adds about a quarter to Asia–Europe ro-ro voyages; the same ship with the same crew makes fewer round trips a year, so effective capacity is passively discounted.

The world’s largest car-carrier operator, Wallenius Wilhelmsen, says—per industry media—its bookings are sold years ahead; Höegh Autoliners’ Q2 call saw CEO Gustav Høegh admit China’s export boom has held rates at double pre-pandemic levels—and its fleet expansion can’t keep up with customer order growth.

Calculation 3 / ShipbuildingNewbuilding orders: 95% went to Chinese yards

The move to add capacity inevitably runs through shipyards. Per Clarksons, as of mid-July, 35 of 37 new ro-ro orders worldwide—nearly 95%—went to Chinese yards. Per industry tallies, Q2 alone saw 87,200 CEU of new contracts signed, more than six times the year before.

CSSC Nanjing and Yangtze River Shipbuilding are running at full capacity; delivery slots are booked to 2030. The record for the world’s largest car carrier has also been reset by Chinese yards in recent years: the 9,500-CEU “Anji Ansheng” and BYD’s 9,200-CEU “BYD SHENZHEN” have launched one after another.

It is not only shipping companies placing orders. Global Car Carriers, MSC’s auto-transport arm, signed 12 LNG dual-fuel ro-ro vessels in July across three Chinese yards—it now runs 20 and, with those under construction, will reach 32, betting heavily to rebuild its specialist fleet.

10,000-CEU giants: signed vs. intended must be counted separately

Three domestic players are also planning a batch of 10,000-CEU giants: COSCO Shipping Specialized up to 11, BYD 8, and SAIC Anji Logistics 2—all 11,000-CEU class, with a total price tag reported at around $2.5 billion.

Calculation 3 / CarmakersBYD’s answer: buy the ships yourself

When slots can’t be booked, the leading carmakers’ answer is to step in themselves. By end-2025, BYD had 8 ro-ro vessels in service, 67,000 CEU total, annual capacity over 1 million units.

That arithmetic is stated plainly in a post on the State Post Bureau website: using a third-party shipping company, the industry average overseas transport cost per vehicle is $1,400; after building its own fleet, it drops to $800–1,000.

SAIC Anji Logistics moved earlier. In April this year, its 42nd self-operated ro-ro vessel, the “Anji Jisheng” (9,500 CEU), was named and delivered; all 12 large ocean-going vessels are in service. By 2026, its ocean-going self-operated annual capacity exceeds 600,000 units.

COSCO Shipping Specialized is growing its foreign-trade ro-ro fleet from 25 to 30 vessels; Shenzhen Xiaomo Port Phase 1 already handles 300,000 vehicles/year, and Phase 2 (2028) will exceed 1 million. In June, Sinotrans Ro-Ro signed an international ro-ro capacity strategic partnership with an Anji affiliate—when capacity is tight, peers share slots first.

Carmakers, logistics providers and liner companies moving on three fronts are essentially the same move: lock core-route slots in your own hands, no longer at the mercy of market charter rates.

Extra laneContainers become the second lane

When specialist ships fall short, containers step in. Cars go into 40-ft boxes, fixed with dedicated frames, two to three per container. Maersk and MSC have launched finished-vehicle products for carmakers, from packing and lashing to destination-port delivery.

Industry estimates vary widely: some say about 1 million vehicles a year now move by container, others put it at 4 million—but the direction is consistent: container car shipping is no longer an emergency measure, it is a long-term structural complement.

Freight, a reference number

Per forwarder public quotes, Shanghai–Valencia ro-ro freight is about $75–95 per m³; a typical sedan occupies 12–15 m³, working out to $1,000–1,400 per vehicle. As charter rates rise, this number will keep climbing.

ConclusionWhen will it ease, and what to do now

The supply-side arithmetic: the world delivered 75 new car carriers in 2025, and 2026–2027 are expected to deliver about 50 each year; industry analysis widely expects supply and demand to rebalance only around 2028. In other words, high rates will likely stay with us for at least another year-plus.

Two verifiable public handles

For those in auto export: practical moves now

• Review slots monthly—quote on locked periods, not annual.
• Container logistics tied to cars—finished-vehicle boxing is real incremental business.
• If you hold NEVs—get battery declaration documents ready first; don’t get stuck at booking.